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三包轮胎与不三包轮胎政策调整一直处于两条平行线上，各自为力，各行其是。从政策调整统计来看，三包轮胎上涨时间相对较晚，政策 早上涨时间是在11月份，较不三包轮胎上涨时间晚两个月以上。从累计幅度调整来看，三包轮胎上涨幅度较小，多数三包轮胎上涨幅度在20%以内，较不三包轮胎累积上涨幅度30%以上相差较多。而从成本影响来看，双反受原材料影响均较大，虽然三包轮胎有原料长约来缓冲上涨连带时间，但是成本差距相差无几。从此方面来看，三包轮胎仍有上涨支撑。另外，轮胎主要原材料天然橡胶、合成橡胶价格方面虽有大的下调，但是除此之外的其它主要原材料价格却稳中有升，成本和利润需要下轮胎价格仍有上调可能。但是毕竟已连续近月的低位行情已形成新的走势拖累，轮胎价格上涨已逐渐趋于尾声，连续上调可能性将减弱，即便是三包轮胎厂家调整也多是给予前期利润补齐的 后挣扎，涨价 多持续至四月初。
The policy adjustment of "Three Guarantees" and "no three guarantees" has always been on two parallel lines, each doing its own thing. From the statistics of policy adjustment, the rise time of Sanbao tire is relatively late. The earliest rise time of the policy is in November, more than two months later than that of Sanbao tire. From the perspective of cumulative range adjustment, the increase range of Sanbao tires is small. Most Sanbao tires increase within 20%, which is much different from the cumulative increase range of more than 30% of non Sanbao tires. From the perspective of cost impact, both tires are greatly affected by raw materials. Although the three packs of tires have raw materials for about a long time to cushion the rise, the cost gap is almost the same. From this point of view, three packs of tires still have rising support. In addition, although the prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber, the main raw materials of tires, have been greatly reduced, the prices of other main raw materials have increased steadily, and the tire prices may still be increased under the needs of costs and profits. However, after all, the low market for nearly months has formed a new trend drag, the rise of tire prices has gradually come to an end, and the possibility of continuous increase will be weakened. Even the adjustment of Sanbao tire manufacturers is mostly the last struggle to make up for the early profits, and the price rise will last until early April at most.
目前轮胎市场整体库存仍高于常态水平，其中二级及以下库存水平偏高，储库至五月初的仍相对普遍，因此近期补库情绪仍不高。虽然一级商家库存水平略低，二月份开订货会的商家库存下滑明显，在三月份表现出集中订货需求，然而近期价格推涨有所疲软，补货多为月内需求量而已，暂无过多补充行为。同时从市场了解，终端消化开始逐步增加，但较去年同期仍有差距。然而行情走高支撑较预期时间更早一步发生转化，终端守库如金的想法发生改变，不再盲目增值压货，以尽多抓住客户需求为动力，尽快转库存为资金为方向行动起来。
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货代人，我懂你的焦虑
夜晚的华南城办公楼内灯火辉煌，坂雪岗大路上，大货车排着了长队。大马路两侧工业园区库房内传来一声声胶带纸拉扯的响声。日日光灯下摇晃着光着胳膊的小伙儿低头装包的影子。一旁的录单员好点是女生，迅速挥舞手指头敲击着电脑键盘。 …
